Do you see any patterns in the fluctuating numbers of the National Finals?

Reviewing reader comments is how we get a lot of ideas for the articles we share. You ask, and we attempt to deliver. When we went over the finishers of the four stages of the American Ninja Warrior National Finals, someone commented that they’d like to know how many initial Ninjas stepped up to the first stage of the National Finals over the years.

Additionally, we posed a question around the “perfect” number of Stage Two clears. While there were lots of answers, we saw some strong support around the idea that 25% of the initial Stage Two competitors is the number of Ninjas fans would like to see advance to Stage Three.

To that end, we’ve combined those thoughts for this article. We’ve broken down the recent years of the National Finals by initial competitors attempting a stage, and the completion rate for that stage. Interestingly enough, that 25% completion rate hasn’t happened. In fact, the numbers seem a bit random. Besides Stage Three’s very low completion rate, things are a little all over the place. Do you see any patterns?

Please note that we’re just reviewing the recent years of the National Finals. Season eight onward, to be exact. Why? Because this website didn’t exist before season eight, so we can’t fact-check ourselves. And season 12 didn’t have a National Finals, so that season is also omitted.

Season eight

We don’t have a confirmed count on Stage One for this season, as we focused only on the advancing Ninjas in our coverage that year. Looking back at our notes, we believe this is the info on all the competitors who attempted Stage One. But, as always, feel free to let us know if we’re incorrect.

Stage One

• Approximately 90 competitors on Stage One
• 17 finishers
• Approximately 19% completion rate

Stage Two

• 17 competitors on Stage Two
• 2 finishers
• Approximately 12% completion rate

Stage Three

• 2 competitors on Stage Three
• 0 finishers
• 0% completion rate

Photo by: David Becker/NBCU Photo Bank/NBCUniversal via Getty Images via Getty Images

Season nine

Stage One

• 95 competitors on Stage One
• 41 finishers
• Approximately 43% completion rate

Stage Two

• 41 competitors on Stage Two
• 3 finishers
• Approximately 7% completion rate

Stage Three

• 3 competitors on Stage Three
• 0 finishers
• 0% completion rate

Photo by: David Becker/NBC

Season 10

Stage One

• 97 competitors on Stage One
• 30 finishers
• Approximately 31% completion rate

Stage Two

• 30 competitors on Stage Two
• 2 finishers
• Approximately 7% completion rate

Stage Three

• 2 competitors on Stage Three
• 0 finishers
• 0% completion rate

Photo By: David Becker/NBCU Photo Bank/NBCUniversal via Getty Images via Getty Images

Season 11

Stage One

• 86 competitors on Stage One
• 28 finishers
• Approximately 33% completion rate

Stage Two

• 28 competitors on Stage Two
• 21 finishers
• 75% completion rate

Stage Three

• 21 competitors on Stage Three
• 2 finishers
• Approximately 10% completion rate

Stage Four

• 2 competitors on Stage Four
• 1 finisher
• 50% completion rate

Photo by: David Becker/NBC

The National Finals will return for season 13 of American Ninja Warrior. Will we see a 25% completion rate on Stage Two? Do the numbers above give you any thoughts on what we might see in 2021?