FanPost

Stat of the week: How far is far enough for the National Finals?

Eddy Chen/NBC



In the Cleveland City Finals only two ninjas were able to get past the Nail Clipper, it was a historically difficult obstacle. This meant that a lot of ninjas who failed to complete this obstacle were moving on to the National Finals because they reached that point fast enough. It is pretty common that American Ninja Warrior National Finalists fail to complete their City Finals course. Heck, even Isaac Caldiero failed to complete the Kansas City Finals course during his winning season.

As I've mentioned in the past, the average number of City Finals clears since Season 4 has generally decreased. Season 7 was especially low, but Season 8, and now Season 9 (4/6 of the way through) appear to be trending toward a similarly low average number of finishers per City Finals.

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The average number of City Finals finishers, (total City Finals finishers in a season divided by the number of different City Finals courses in that given season.]

With fewer City Finals clears, that means more ninjas who failed to complete the course moved on the National Finals. However, completing the City Finals course is still the most common result among all National Finalists. Pooling all the data from all the 33 City Finals to date, we see that 37.58% (186/495) of National Finalists completed their City Finals course.

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[A complete breakdown of the City Finals result of all 495 National Finalists in 33 previous City Finals courses.]

This table takes into account every competitor in the history of American Ninja Warrior who qualified for the National Finals by placing in the top 15 of their City Final's course. This does not include any wildcards, or any women who qualified according to this seasons new rule. Obviously, the figure also only describes the furthest obstacle ninjas reached in the City Finals, as those who completed the course, cleared all the other obstacles as well. The second most common City Finals result for National Finalists is failing to complete the 8th obstacle, coming in at 32.73%.

The Nail Clipper was the 8th obstacle in the Cleveland City Finals and added 13 more ninjas who qualified for the National Finals simply by reaching the 8th obstacle to the data. Considering that City Finals completions are decreasing, and the next largest percentage of National Finalists are those who failed to complete the 8th obstacle it makes sense that the average number of National Finalists who failed to complete the 8th obstacle is increasing.

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[Failing the 8th City Finals obstacle is the second most common result of National Finalists, this figure shows on average how many ninjas have qualified despite failing the 8th on a per City Finals course basis.]

So far this season, an average of 8.5 competitors per City Finals has qualified for the National Finals despite failing to complete at least the 8th obstacle. This figure includes all results of competitors failing to complete the 8th or an earlier obstacle. It is not quite an inverse of the previous graph, because of the 23.64% of ninjas who reached the 9th or 10th City Finals obstacles during their trips to the National Finals. This 23.64% is spaced out differently throughout the season, explaining the lack a true inversion.

In the history of American Ninja Warrior the fastest competitor to the 8th City Finals obstacle has only failed to reach the National finals 5 times. In three of those City Finals the 15 competitors who moved on to the National Finals all completed the entire course, they were the: Season 1 City Finals, Season 4 - Northwest City Finals and the Season 4 - Southeast City Finals. In the other two instances where being the fastest competitor to the 8th obstacle was not enough to qualify for the National Finals, being the fastest competitor to the 9th obstacle was enough to qualify, those courses were the: Season 5 - Baltimore City Finals and the Season 7 - Kansas City City Finals.

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[The minimum requirement to qualify for the National Finals, this graph shows the least amount of progress someone made on each of the 33 City Finals so far and still qualified for the National Finals.]

At least reaching the 8th obstacle with the fastest time leading to qualification for the National Finals is 28/33 City Finals courses so far. So although reaching the 8th obstacle with the fastest time does not guarantee competitors a shot in the National Finals, 84.85% of the time it is enough to qualify them. In fact there were 7 different City Finals where competitors didn't even have to reach the 8th obstacle with the fastest time to qualify for the National Finals.

For 5 different City Finals courses the cut off to qualify for Vegas was the fastest competitors to the Salmon Ladder. In 2 City Finals ninjas didn't even have to complete the Warped Wall to Qualify for the National Finals. In the Season 4 Northeast City Finals simply reaching the Warped Wall with the fastest time of the night was enough to qualify someone for the National Finals. An even crazier City Finals was the Venice Beach City Finals in Season 7 when simply reaching the Hourglass Drop (the 5th obstacle) with a fast enough time was enough to qualify a competitor for the National Finals.

The fact that it was only possible to qualify for the National Finals from the 5th obstacle and the Warped Wall once, is why they made up such small percentages in the pie chart shown earlier.

Bonus Stats:

Jesse Labreck qualified for the National Finals for the second season in a row, only one other female competitor, Jessie Graff, has done this before (Graff currently has qualified for 3 straight National Finals).

This is the second season in a row where 3 women have finished inside the top 15 of City Finals. Jesse Labreck joins Jessie Graff, and Barclay Stockett earlier this season, and there are still two more City Finals yet to run.

All three women who finished inside the top 15 in their City Finals, also finished inside the top 30 in their City Qualifiers, meaning they did not need the new women's rule at any point to reach the National Finals.

Since first appearing on the show in Season 5, this will be the first time we do not see Michelle Warnky in the National Finals. It just won't be the same without her.

Joe Moravsky cleared his 4th City Finals course. Tying Brian Arnold, James McGrath, and Paul Kasemir for the second most all time. David Campbell has cleared 5 City Finals.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of American Ninja Warrior Nation's writers or editors, or of NBC.

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